Cryptocurrency markets are rallying as macro signals and political developments boost investor confidence, though analysts caution the surge may be premature.
Bitcoin surged past $99,000 early Thursday, nearing its all-time high and reigniting speculation about a potential breakthrough above the psychological $100,000 threshold. The move comes amid renewed optimism surrounding a possible trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom and a stabilizing interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve.
The rally marks Bitcoin’s strongest performance since February, fueled by President Donald Trump’s social media hint of a “major” international trade pact. Although he didn’t name the country, multiple media outlets have pointed to Britain as the likely partner, signaling potential relief from tariffs that have strained transatlantic relations in recent years.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, the proposed agreement could lead to reductions in tariffs imposed on British metals and vehicles while potentially lowering U.K. taxes on U.S. tech and agricultural exports. If finalized, the deal would mark a significant diplomatic step under Trump’s protectionist economic framework, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.”
Markets responded positively across the board. Bitcoin gained over 2.5% on the day, while U.S. stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted modest advances. Analysts attributed the moves to both the trade news and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged economic uncertainty but maintained that the broader economic backdrop remains resilient.
Traders Bet on a ‘Trump Put’—But Experts Urge Caution
Some market participants now perceive Trump-era policies as offering a buffer for risk assets. “The belief in a ‘Trump put’ is growing,” said Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at blockchain intelligence firm Nansen, referring to the idea that the administration will act to prevent sharp market declines. However, she added, “This rally still requires confirmation, especially with unresolved trade tensions involving China.”
Nansen’s internal models currently assign a 55% probability to Bitcoin breaking above its previous highs in the near term. But Barthere emphasized that the current rally appears to offer diminishing upside potential, warning that investors may be overestimating the likelihood of sustained gains.
Bitcoin’s Market Role Still Fluid Amid Broader Uncertainty
Others echoed the need for caution. Marcin Kazmierczak, COO of oracle infrastructure provider RedStone, noted Bitcoin’s inconsistent correlation with equity markets over the past year, fluctuating between -0.2 and 0.4. “Bitcoin functions more as a portfolio diversifier than a safe haven,” he said, highlighting the asset’s unpredictable behavior during market downturns.
Nansen’s latest outlook also warns that market sentiment may be running ahead of reality. A notable decline in the equity risk premium — now below 3% — suggests traders may be discounting potential headwinds, such as weak consumer data, persistent inflation in core services, and stalled trade negotiations with China.
While the narrative around Bitcoin’s march to $100,000 has captivated investors, analysts agree that follow-through on economic policy and international diplomacy will ultimately determine whether the momentum holds — or fizzles.